报告题目：Inferring the causes of the three waves of the 1918 influenza pandemic in England and Wales.

报告时间：2015年4月8日（星期三）上午10:15           
报告地点：理科楼202 

Abstract: Past influenza pandemics appear to be characterized by multiple waves of incidence, but the mechanisms that account for this phenomenon remain unclear. We propose a simple epidemic model, which incorporates three factors that might contribute to the generation of multiple waves: (i) schools opening and closing, (ii) temperature changes during the outbreak, and (iii) changes in human behaviour in response to the outbreak. We fit this model to the reported influenza mortality during the 1918 pandemic in 334 UK administrative units and estimate the epidemiological parameters. We then use information criteria to evaluate how well these three factors explain the observed patterns of mortality. Our results indicate that all three factors are important but that behavioural responses had the largest effect. The parameter values that produce the best fit are biologically reasonable and yield epidemiological dynamics that match the observed data well.

报告人简介: Dr He is an assistant professor at the Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University. Dr He graduated from Xi’an Jiaotong University with a PhD in Engineering Mechanics in 1999 and from McMaster University (Canada) with a PhD in Applied Mathematics in 2006. Dr He is a mathematical epidemiologist and his expertise in advanced mathematics and statistics has helped improve our understanding of the spread of viruses at the population level. Dr He’s recent works got wide media attention, including reports from Cable News Network (CNN), Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC), New York Times, National Public Radio (NPR), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),  Hong Kong Daily News and PolyU Milestones.