报告题目: The Cross Immunity Between Drifted Influenza A/H3N2 Strains

报告时间: 2018年11月14日，星期三，下午2:30-3:30

报告地点：数学楼408

报告人: Prof. Junling Ma，Department of Mathematical Sciences  The University of Victoria

Abstract：

To determine the cross-immunity between influenza strains, we design a novel statistical method, which uses a theoretical model and clinical data on attack rates and vaccine efficacy among school children for two seasons after the 1968 A/H3N2 influenza pandemic. This model incorporates the distribution of susceptibility and the dependence of cross-immunity on the antigenic distance of drifted strains. We find that the cross-immunity between an influenza strain and the mutant that causes the next epidemic is 88%. Our method also gives estimates of the vaccine protection against the vaccinating strain, and the basic reproduction number of the 1968 pandemic influenza.

讲座人简介： 

马君岭教授2002年于普林斯顿大学取得应用数学专业哲学博士学位。现任职于加拿大维多利亚大学（University of Victoria）。从事传染病的数学建模研究。主要研究方向有艾滋病，流感的感染和死亡数据分析，建模，预测，以及传染病在接触网络上的传播的机理和数学描述。在《Annal of Internal Medicine》，《Procedings of National Academy of Sciences》,《Procedings of the Royal Society B》,《BMC Infectious Diseases》,《Journal of Mathematical Biology》,《Mathematical Biosciences》, 《Journal of Theoretical Biology》, 《Bulletin of Mathematical Biology》等较有影响的期刊发表过多篇论文。